Brazil to Vote in Tight Runoff as Right-Wing Leader Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula in Final Polls

Brasilia: Brazilians vote today in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, with final polls pointing to a near-tie and a slight edge for the challenger.

Bolsonaro, the son of jailed ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, is the narrow favourite after taking 47 percent of the first-round vote to Lula’s 45. The electoral court’s count put the gap at about 2.2 million votes. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. The result defied polls that had projected him winning the first round by about three points.

The final surveys show a race within the margin of error. Datafolha and Quaest, both published on Saturday, gave Bolsonaro 51 percent to Lula’s 49. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had him at 50.5 percent to 49.5. Lula has gained ground since the first round. An October 9 poll gave Bolsonaro 51.1 percent to Lula’s 45.7, while a Quaest survey on October 21 had them at 45 and 44. Palver found that 49 percent of voters reject Lula and 47 percent reject Bolsonaro.

The candidates faced off in a final televised debate on Friday, which mostly focused on policy after a first debate that quickly deteriorated into insults.

Flavio Bolsonaro, who is a right-wing ideologist and a close ally of US Presidet Donald Trump is asking Brazilians to hand the presidency to a movement whose founder is in prison for trying to overturn a democratic election. His father, Jair, who was the previous President, was convicted in September 2025 on all five counts and sentenced to 27 years and three months, the first Brazilian leader found guilty of attempting to overturn an election.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes called him the leader of the coup plot and of a criminal organisation.

Flavio has not distanced himself from that record. He has promised a “broad, general and unrestricted” amnesty for his father and others convicted in the plot, and a presidential pardon if Congress does not act.

The Washington Post reported that he has also promised to impeach the Supreme Court justices who held them accountable. Critics say this shows a right-wing project that treats courts as enemies and foreign patronage as an asset, with a candidate whose first loyalty may be his father’s freedom, not the institutions he would swear to protect.

Polls close at 5 pm local time, and the electoral court begins publishing results right after. A close count could be slow. In the first round, early returns favoured Bolsonaro because southern states reported faster, while votes from Lula’s northeastern stronghold came in more slowly.