Five Countries Vote Within Days as Democratic Norms Face a Crucial Test

Five elections on four continents within five weeks could reshape global politics, either deepening the world’s drift towards authoritarianism or marking a limited comeback for democratic norms. In each contest, pro-democracy forces are in close races against sitting or aspiring autocrats. According to the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute, the democratic freedoms enjoyed by the average global citizen are down to levels last seen in 1978.

Brazil and Serbia vote first

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential runoff. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of US President Donald Trump, enters as the favourite after taking 47 per cent in the first round on October 4, against 44.9 per cent for 80-year-old President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro has pledged constitutional changes and a pardon for his father.

Serbia also votes on Sunday in its most contested parliamentary election in more than 14 years. Aleksandar Vucic, who resigned as president on September 27 to run for prime minister, faces the Students’ List, a movement born from nearly two years of student-led protests. It has no students on its ballot but fields academics, teachers and other professionals. An Ipsos poll gave Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party 47 per cent to the students’ 40 per cent, though other surveys put the students ahead, and both camps claim to be winning. Analysts have warned of rising electoral violence, particularly if the result is disputed, and the official tally is not expected before Monday.

Israel and the United States follow

Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27, for the first time since the October 7 attack and the genocide that followed. Polls point to deadlock. Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition averages around 50 seats, about 11 short of the 61 needed, while the opposition is split between former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has surged to rival Likud, and the Together alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Neither bloc has consistently reached a majority, and a hung Knesset is a real possibility.

On November 3, Americans vote in midterm elections that will decide all 435 House seats and a third of the Senate. The contest is a referendum on Trump, whose approval rating has fallen to record lows in recent polling.

Spain heads to the polls too

The turbulence extends to Europe. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a snap general election for November 29 after his minority coalition lost a parliamentary vote on housing decrees aimed at curbing evictions and speculation, amid mass protests over housing crisis. He is betting that the housing crisis favours his progressive coalition, while the opposition Popular Party is expected to campaign on alleged corruption cases involving figures close to the Prime Minister, including his wife.

The Christian Science Monitor argued the votes offer a chance to uphold democratic and economic freedoms, citing the World Justice Project’s latest Rule of Law Index, which points to a global democratic recession. Whether the authoritarian right cements its recent gains or meets resistance will become clear within days.

Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsements and pressure are being used to lift allied right-wing leaders from Jerusalem to Brasilia. Resistance comes mostly from student and youth movements. Cost-of-living anger is helping the right in some places and hurting it in others.