NDA Secures Bihar by Leveraging Welfare Cash, Fear Campaigns and State Power

Patna: Nitish Kumar is poised to return as Chief Minister of Bihar for an unprecedented tenth time, extending a two- decade -long tenure marked as much by political somersaults as by claims of stability. The JD(U) chief, whose party has steadily shrunk in electoral strength over the years, will once again head an NDA government in which the BJP is the dominant force.

Despite the visible strain on his health and repeated shifts in loyalty, the BJP has chosen to reinstall him, viewing him as a manageable partner while it secures control over key ministries and both Deputy Chief Minister posts.

Nitish first held the chief ministership briefly in 2000, resigning within days due to lack of majority. Since 2005, however, he has clung to the post by alternating alliances, moving between the BJP and the RJD -led Mahagathbandhan in ways critics describe as opportunistic rather than ideological. After governing with the NDA from 2005 to 2013, switching to the RJD in 2015, and then re-switching in 2017, he again broke with the Mahagathbandhan in 2024 to return to the NDA camp for a ninth swearing-in, now followed by a tenth.

This latest electoral outcome has been shaped heavily by state- sponsored welfare timed strategically before voting. The NDA government’s Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, launched just weeks before polling and inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sent ten thousand rupees directly into the accounts of 7.5 million women. Opposition parties allege that the scheme amounted to blatant electoral inducement, but the numbers show its effectiveness: women voted in higher proportions than men, with female turnout surpassing male turnout by 8.8 percentage points. The state also saw 4.4 million more women voters compared to 2020.

Schemes such as increased pensions for widows and senior citizens, higher honorariums for ASHA workers, the schoolgirl bicycle programme, and extensive reservation for women in local bodies have helped the ruling alliance build a cross-caste women’s vote bank. Nitish repeatedly cites women’s support to justify policies such as prohibition, though enforcement failures and the rise of illicit liquor networks have drawn criticism. Even so, the strategy of treating women as a durable electoral bloc, mirroring BJP tactics in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, worked to the NDA’s advantage.

The opposition, however, was hamstrung by internal fractures, particularly within the Congress. The party resisted compromise on seat-sharing, announced candidates unilaterally in 61 constituencies, and eventually won only six. The INDIA bloc’s organisational drift was laid bare: Rahul Gandhi spent little time in the state, and his eve-of-poll remark predicting defeat effectively dampened cadre enthusiasm. Accusations that Congress leaders accepted money for tickets further damaged the alliance’s credibility.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav campaigned intensively, but faced an NDA narrative machine that repeatedly evoked the spectre of ‘jungle raj’, a storyline the opposition failed to rebut robustly. Smaller parties, including AIMIM and platforms led by Prashant Kishor, splintered the anti- NDA vote, compounding the Mahagathbandhan’s difficulties.