Strengthening El Nino Raises Concerns Over Weak Monsoon in Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram: The strengthening of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is expected to further weaken the monsoon this season, with multiple climate agencies confirming visible shifts in ocean-atmosphere conditions. The warming of Pacific waters is projected to impact global weather systems, affecting monsoons not only in India but across other Asian nations as well.

India meteorological department is watching the intensification of El Nino during the southwest monsoon season with growing concern. In previous years, the phenomenon has significantly reduced monsoon rainfall and triggered drought-like conditions in several parts of the country.

The United States Climate Prediction Center has also raised the possibility of the current El Nino strengthening further into a Super El Nino event, which would have far more severe consequences for seasonal rainfall patterns globally.

In Kerala, a deficient monsoon is expected to hit the agricultural sector hard, while also creating a crisis in the availability of electricity and drinking water. Large dry spells are anticipated in July and August — months that typically receive the bulk of the state's monsoon rainfall. At the same time, isolated incidents of extremely heavy, concentrated rainfall in specific localities cannot be ruled out.