UN Warns of One of Strongest El Nino Events Since 1950 as Pattern Intensifies Toward December Peak

New York: El Nino will continue to intensify before reaching its forecast peak in December, the United Nations warned Thursday, cautioning that this year's event could rank among the strongest witnessed since at least 1950. The naturally occurring weather pattern is expected to bring higher-than-average temperatures across much of the planet and shift global rainfall patterns, raising the risk of both drought and flooding in different regions.

According to the World Meteorological Organization's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the region at the heart of El Nino, are forecast to climb to record levels during October, November and December, driving weather patterns that will affect economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide. The index measuring these temperature anomalies rose from 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees above normal in August, with the anomaly expected to reach roughly 3.7 degrees above normal by the fourth quarter of the year.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event was now firmly established and strengthening rapidly, describing the ocean it is drawing heat from as the warmest ever measured, leaving an unusually large reservoir of heat available for release. The organisation's forecast, based on consensus from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres, indicates a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Nino conditions will persist through February 2027.

The pattern typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months, alternating with its cooler counterpart, La Nina, and neutral conditions in between. The previous El Nino contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record, before 2024 surpassed it as the hottest ever recorded.